The following information was released by email today regarding the impending race for Governor in the State of Louisiana. Some interesting findings regarding the elections were provided and should give an insight into the minds of Louisiana voters at this current time.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Monday, March 9, 2015
CONTACT: Justin Brasell
David Vitter Leads in
Louisiana Political Survey
The race for Governor is increasingly shaping up to be a David Vitter vs. John Bel Edwards run-off as no candidates are close to 50%
Our statewide poll of 1,655 participants was conducted on March 5, 2015, and has a margin of error of +/- 2.4%. The results are attached.
The poll was conducted as voters and the press have begun to focus on this fall’s statewide races in Louisiana. Before this poll, no public poll had been completed since two of the gubernatorial candidates began paid media buys or since several public debates were held in that race. Previous polls have included other candidates for governor who have not announced and did not participate in any debate. The poll also measured the races for Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General and Commissioner of Insurance, which are beginning to become active.
· The Louisiana political environment is cynical, to say the least. Currently 30% of the electorate believes Louisiana is headed in the right direction, while 70% believe it’s headed in the wrong direction.
· Incumbent Republican Governor Bobby Jindal currently has a 63% disapproval rating.
· In a head-to-head race for Governor, with a generic Democrat candidate vs. a generic Republican, the Republican candidate ONLY leads by six points, 53% Republican to 47% Democrat. That is far closer than any recent major statewide elections.
· This is a much different environment at the state level than we saw during the November 2014 federal election cycle in Louisiana. If a three-point swing were to occur on the generic ballot (certainly possible with Republicans in charge of an upcoming legislative session next month featuring a $1.6 billion deficit), the two generic candidates would be dead even.
RACE FOR GOVERNOR
· The race for Governor is increasingly shaping up to be a David Vitter vs. John Bel Edwards run-off, as no candidates are close enough to 50%.
· Currently Vitter is leading with 35% (23% definitely / 12% probably) followed by Edwards at 33% (16% definitely / 17% probably).
· Jay Dardenne is running third with 15% (8% definitely / 7% probably), while Scott Angelle trails with 7% (3% definitely / 4% probably). 11% remain undecided.
· Edwards’ radio buy seems to be consolidating African American support (68% Edwards / 13% undecided).
· Despite a reported $200k television buy, Angelle remains in the mid single digits.
Triumph Campaigns, LLC / 201 W. Capitol Street, Jackson, MS 39201